Sep 21, 2014

Articles in journals

Mendicino, C., Punzi, MT., Haavio, M.

21

5

This article empirically studies the linkages between financial variable downturns and economic recessions. We present evidence that real asset prices tend to lead real cycles, while loan-to-GDP and loan-to-deposit ratios lag them. Using a probit analysis, we document that downturns in real asset prices, particularly real house prices, are useful leading indicators of economic recessions.

macro-financial linkages; ,turning point analysis; ,probit models;,