Sep 21, 2013

Articles in journals

Dias, J.

392

10

The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has not yet been solved and recent developments in Spain and Italy have further deteriorated the situation. In this paper we develop a new approach to analyze the ongoing Eurozone crisis. Firstly, we use Maximum Spanning Trees to analyze the topological properties of government bond rates’ dynamics. Secondly, we combine the information given by both Maximum and Minimum Spanning Trees to obtain a measure of market dissimilarity or disintegration. Thirdly, we extend this measure to include a convenient distance not limited to the interval [0, 2]. Our empirical results show that Maximum Spanning Tree gives an adequate description of the separation of the euro area into two distinct groups: those countries strongly affected by the crisis and those that have remained resilient during this period. The measures of market dissimilarity also reveal a persistent separation of these two groups and, according to our second measure, this separation strongly increased during the period July 2009–March 2012.