Sep 21, 2004

Articles in journals

Mendonça, S., Kaivo-oja, J., Cunha, M.P.

36

17

This paper addresses the need for reliable action guidelines that can be used by organisations in radically turbulent environments. Building on current conceptual and empirical research, as well as practical experience, we attempt to suggest realistic analytical approach for private policy structuring under the occurrence of surprising and damaging events. In order to do so we use the wild-card management system. Wild-cards refer to sudden and unique incidents that can constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. As the first of the two components of such a wild-card system we advocate a weak signal methodology to take into account those wild-cards that can be anticipated by scanning the decision environment. The second component is designed to deal with those events that are not mediated by weak signals and relates to the development of improvisation capabilities within the organization. We discuss these issues in the context of a concrete scenario exercise at Daimler’s former aerospace division. This paper can be seen as making part of a broader agenda on how to manage in conditions of continuous but unpredictable change.

Indicators,Trademarks,Innovation,Industrial dynamics